First, the shameless plug. For just $9/week or $19/month, you can have access to the same Five Tier platform that predicted the Trump win – both Five Tier’s functional intelligence tier and its tools for communication, organization, and automation to increase productivity and grow your business. Now, back to this article!
In March 2016, a full seven months before election day, Five Tier predicted that Trump would win the electoral college 60% to 40% with a 4% margin of error. The outcome as of the writing of this article, 57% to 43%, is exactly within this range. How did Five Tier make this prediction? Big data triangulation layered with historical data and a pretty robust algorithm. Why were we so confident in our prediction? Because Five Tier has been this accurate before.
Five Tier has been built over the course of eight years, the last three focused on making it a turnkey platform available to everyone. The data sets and algorithm in our intelligence tier came together in 2015. In the local elections that year we accurately predicted the election of a CT mayoral candidate by similar margins of victory and error at 10:30am on election day, nine and a half hours before polls closed at 8:00pm. After this we began to predict the presidential election.
Behind the Math
Five Tier’s data includes publicly available information for which the platform constantly scours the web. It looks for the things you’d expect – site traffic, searches, mentions, likes, posts, press, follows and so forth for each candidate. So what, right? Right! But Five Tier doesn’t stop there.
In this campaign Five Tier layered this data onto other relevant information such as campaign spending and the response to advertising. Again not super unique as sites like Ad Age do this, but it is a step beyond baseline metrics. Still nothing special.
Here is where it gets interesting: Five Tier then layered in historical learning – what has worked, what hasn’t, which indicators and outliers have led to accurate predictions, which to inaccurate ones, and more. All with a couple of clicks. This combination of real time, environmental and historical data is what accurately forecasts voter, as well as consumer, behavior. In March we lined up Trump, Clinton and Sanders. Since the day we first ran the report, Five Tier’s intelligence tier showed a 60% to 40% Trump win in the electoral college against Clinton. Five Tier understood from the data that Trump had his marketing channels on high performance lockdown. While the media was reporting otherwise, the Trump campaign was using the right mix of paid, earned, owned, online and offline channels to reach the right people with the right messages through the right channels at the right times. While he was dwarfed by Clinton’s consistent ad spend, Five Tier forecast that he would spend a large chunk on advertising in the closing weeks – another prediction which came true: according to Ad Age Trump spent $150MM in the closing six weeks of the campaign.
As the polls fluctuated weekly amidst his “grab her by the…” and her email scandals, our predictions stayed consistent. While TV pundits and journalists dissected every bit of micro data, we stole the show with our normalized combination of all data.
What does this mean for Five Tier users?
Five Tier’s audience, market, and competitive reports are available instantly to all subscribers to inform their marketing – from their creative look and feel to their messaging and channel allocation. While Five Tier has been used locally by both major parties, it hasn’t been in the market long enough for any candidate to put the system to its full use. But just imagine how the 2016 election might have been different had Hillary’s campaign used Five Tier to it’s full potential starting in March.
Presidential candidates now have to wait for 2020. Fortunately, you can start using Five Tier today.